Census director expresses concern about ballooning costs in plans for 2010 head count

Groves worried about cost overruns in 2010 census

WASHINGTON — The head of the Census Bureau on Wednesday expressed concern about cost overruns in preparations for next year’s high-stakes count, saying he was taking steps to help prevent the expenses from ballooning further.

Appearing before a House panel, Robert Groves said poor planning had resulted in added costs in the address canvassing operation that were $88 million higher than the original estimate of $356 million, an overrun of 25 percent.

Groves said the agency had made some faulty assumptions in how quickly it could get work done. The agency was now re-evaluating budget estimates for the entire census operation, which is projected to cost roughly $15 billion.

“Those budget overruns are intolerable,” he told a House Oversight and Government Reform subcommittee.

Groves also disputed initial estimates suggesting that mail response rates next year were certain to decline compared to previous censuses. In response to lawmaker questioning, Groves said he did not necessarily agree with a forecast that next year’s mail-in rate would be about 64 percent, compared to 67 percent in 2000.

He explained that while the agency faces challenges next year in counting displaced residents due to home foreclosures and skittish immigrants wary of filling out government forms, the agency also had implemented new design features that could ultimately boost the count.

To boost participation, the Census Bureau is mounting a $300 million national media campaign and partnering with more than 80,000 groups to help get the word out that filling out the 10-question census form is safe and easy.

The stakes are high since the population figures are used to apportion House seats, redraw congressional districts and distribute more than $400 billion in government funds for schools, roads, hospitals and other vital programs.

But there are also broader financial consequences if there is a poor turnout, since the Census Bureau has committed to spending hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars to locate residents with repeated visits if they fail to immediately mail in their paper form.

Groves has estimated that an increase of one percentage point in the mail-in rate could save the government about $80 million to $90 million.

Robert Goldenkoff, a director at the Government Accountability Office, told lawmakers that a reliable estimate of the mail-in rate is key to determining whether the Census Bureau will overspend its budget, since follow-up visits represent the largest share of costs in the decennial count.

On the Net:

Census Bureau: www.census.gov