End of primary challenge marks smoother sailing for NY Sen. Gillibrand in 2010 election

NY’s Gillibrand gets clearer path to 2010 election

ALBANY, N.Y. —Kirsten Gillibrand didn’t have the pedigree of a Kennedy, Clinton or a Cuomo. She was not, her critics said, up to the challenge of winning a tough, New York brawl for the U.S. Senate seat Gov. David Paterson handed her.

But on Friday, the last of the established threats to her candidacy backed away from a promised Democratic primary showdown, leaving Gillibrand a smoother ride to a full, six-year term when she faces election next year. U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who just last month raised $300,000 at a dinner that featured former President Bill Clinton, said there was too much to do in Congress to spend the next year campaigning.

In less than seven months, Gillibrand went from vulnerable and criticized to a prohibitive favorite. A primary election fight is the biggest threat to Gillibrand in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1. No Republican has emerged as a general election opponent.

“The deal is done,” said Doug Muzzio, a politics professor at Baruch College. “She’s the Democratic primary candidate and she’s not going to face any substantial opposition.”

When the little-known, conservative-leaning U.S. representative was named to succeed Hillary Rodham Clinton as New York’s junior senator in January, Democrats in the state fractured. Loyalists backed her, but others balked, despite vocal support from President Barack Obama and New York Sen. Charles Schumer, a political force in the chamber.

The early favorite for the Senate seat, political scion Caroline Kennedy, backed out at the last minute for reasons that have never become clear. Another possible senator, state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, also was passed over (though he never publicly said he wanted the job).

Gillibrand’s conservative views on guns and immigration drew sharp criticism from more liberal Democrats in the state. Besides Maloney, U.S. Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn McCarthy considered primary challenges.

But Gillibrand has connected with powerful allies and continues the engaging, street-level style of politicking that helped her knock off an entrenched — if troubled — Republican incumbent in 2006. She wiped out a self-funded millionaire in 2008 in New York’s once-safely-Republican 20th Congressional District, which stretches from the rural Adirondack Mountains in northern New York to the mid-Hudson Valley, north of New York City.

“It’s good to have the president on your side,” said Gerald Benjamin, a political scientist at the State University of New York at New Paltz. “And that shows that the Democrats are averse to risk when it comes to Senate seats. They’re looking to sustain at least 60, and they’re looking to maximize the number of incumbents” running in 2010.

A call from Obama weighed in Israel’s decision to drop his challenge. Vice President Joe Biden called Maloney in June to discuss the race with her. McCarthy’s bid never materialized.

Perhaps Gillibrand’s strongest support has come from Schumer, who helped the Democratic party regain the majority in that chamber during his time as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. A thumbs up from Schumer goes a long way in getting other Democrats to fall in line behind a candidate.

“The Democratic establishment was there,” Muzzio said. “However, the fact remains her views — at least at the time of her appointment — did not reflect a statewide, certainly a downstate, perspective. And she has moved to accommodate a more liberal downstate view. Some would argue that she was reflecting the thinking of her constituents, and others would say it’s pure political expediency.”

Over the summer, Gillibrand rounded up the backing of backing of unions, elected officials, civil rights activists, including the Rev. Al Sharpton and EMILY’s List, which raises money for Democratic female candidates. She also had a prominent role in the confirmation hearings for Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, introducing the nominee.

Her campaign committee had $3.2 million at the end of June. A competitive Senate race can cost upward of $40 million.

In a Marist poll released in July, Gillibrand had just a 24 percent approval rating, and 33 percent of voters said they didn’t know enough about her. Regardless, with Maloney out of the way, Gillibrand has a much clearer path ahead of her, said Lee Miringoff, of the Marist poll.

“If you were going to run against her you would have to be pretty much self-financed because a lot of the traditional sources of revenue would dry up,” Miringoff said. “The challenger might not find a welcoming committee.”

On the Net:

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand: kirstengillibrand.com/