Summary Box: Jobs, manufacturing data show recovery off to bumpy start; modest rebound likely

Summary Box: Jobs, manufacturing data disappoint

CONSUMERS: Consumer spending surged 1.3 percent in August, due partly to the now-ended Cash for Clunkers program. But incomes posted a lackluster 0.2 percent gain, and the number of newly laid-off workers rose more than expected to 551,000 last week.

MANUFACTURING: The Institute for Supply Management’s closely watched gauge of manufacturing activity stayed in recovery territory for a second month after 18 straight recessionary readings. But the 52.6 reading posted last month was lower than economists had expected and below August’s 52.9.

WHAT’S NEXT?: Economists believe the recession ended in the July-September quarter, with activity pushed higher by a temporary rise in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity. But they worry that growth could falter in the months ahead unless incomes begin growing at a stronger pace.