Summary Box: Economic recovery in progress after recession eased in spring; bumpy road ahead
By APWednesday, September 30, 2009
Summary Box: Economic recovery looks bumpy
THE WAY WE WERE: The economy contracted at a pace of 0.7 percent in the second quarter, a vast improvement from the first three months of this year, when the economy shrank at a pace of 6.4 percent, the biggest downhill slide in nearly three decades.
THE RECOVERY PHASE: Many analysts predict the economy returned to growth in the just-ended third quarter at a pace of at least 3 percent. Growth is expected to slow to a pace of around 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter.
LURKING RISKS: Rising unemployment could crimp consumer spending. Still hard-to-get credit could restrain big-ticket purchases by consumers and capital investments by businesses. Troubles in the commercial real estate market are likely to be a drag on economic growth. Soured loans held by banks could aggravate fragile financial conditions and further restrain lending.
